Understanding enrollment trends
Our overall enrollment is declining, down more than 10% since 2017.
Those 1,200 students represent the equivalent of about three average SDoL elementary schools.
At the same time, our student population is changing. Nearly one in four students will receive special education services next year, and nearly 25% of our students are English Language Learners. These services are more costly than regular education and require, often by law, more specialized and skilled staff in smaller classes.
These trends in SDoL mirror other schools in Lancaster County, where only three districts have seen enrollment growth since 2018, while many have seen declines comparable to–or greater than–ours.
Comparable urban schools in southeastern Pennyslvania have also seen enrollment declines, but not as significant as SDoL.
Locating the causes and complications of the decline
Nearly every grade band has experienced enrollment declines over the past decade, but the declines at the elementary levels are the largest.
These are students who started school during or after the Covid-19 pandemic, which accelerated enrollment declines across the nation.
You can see that reflected in the declines in student populations in our elementary schools. In 2021, the district conducted a widespread boundary realignment, which had some impact on the populations of some schools. But only two of our 12 elementary schools saw enrollment gains, while some saw declines by as much as 36%. The schools that saw the largest declines are Fulton, Hamilton, and Price.
There are two compounding factors driving enrollment down in district elementary schools–few kids being born and a smaller share of kids who are born enrolling in SDoL. The number of annual live births in Lancaster City and Lancaster Township has declined by more than 15% since 2018.
In 2014, the share of prospective students enrolling in SDoL kindergarten was 72%. Now, we’re down to 62% in 2024.