October 1 is an important date for Pennsylvania school districts.
That’s the date each year on which school districts establish their official enrollment count for reporting to the Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE). Enrollment affects everything from accountability measures to grant eligibility and, in some cases, school funding.
It’s especially important to the School District of Lancaster, because the annual count provides an early look at one of the most significant trends affecting our schools: declining enrollment. The preliminary data show a continuing pattern that has been developing for nearly a decade. And we can begin to compare our projections to reality.
Since reaching a peak in 2017, SDoL’s total student enrollment has declined by nearly 13 percent. In practical terms, the district now serves approximately as many fewer students as would be enrolled in three elementary schools combined.
Importantly, this trend is not unique to Lancaster.
Data from PDE examining comparable school districts in small cities across southeastern Pennsylvania found many communities experiencing similar enrollment declines. While every district faces its own challenges, changing demographics are affecting school systems throughout the region.
While no projection can predict the future with complete certainty, several independent forecasting models have reached similar conclusions: enrollment in SDoL is expected to continue declining over the coming years.
Last winter, SDoL engaged Cropper GIS, a statistical research firm that consults with school districts on demography and facilities planning, to project district enrollment for the next decade. The demographers predict decline by another 12 percent, bringing total district enrollment below 9,000 students. If those projections hold true, SDoL will have about one-quarter fewer students than it did in 2017.
PDE projects a steeper decline, with enrollment falling to just below 8,000 students by 2032. SDoL’s internal projection model falls between the two forecasts.
So, how did the models do in the first year? Cropper GIS forecast enrollment of 9,529. PDE forecast 9,194. The preliminary actual: 9,445.
Importantly, this trend is not unique to Lancaster.
A recent Pennsylvania Department of Education study examining comparable school districts in small cities across southeastern Pennsylvania found many communities experiencing similar enrollment declines. While every district faces its own challenges, changing demographics are affecting school systems throughout the region.
At the same time, declining enrollment does not necessarily mean declining needs.
While the district serves fewer students overall than it did a decade ago, the number of students requiring specialized support services continues to grow. Since 2017, SDoL’s population of students receiving special education services has increased by nearly 50 percent. The district has also seen continued growth in the number of students receiving English Language Development services.
These students often require more individualized instruction, specialized staff, additional supports, and smaller student-to-teacher ratios. As a result, staffing and service needs do not decline at the same rate as enrollment.
That raises an important question: Why is enrollment declining?
Cropper GIS, the demography firm, identified three primary factors: declining birth rates, net population loss among school-age children, and rising housing costs.
The first factor is straightforward: fewer children are being born within the district’s boundaries than in previous years.
For example, there were approximately 1,400 children born in Lancaster City and Lancaster Township who would be kindergarten age in 2014. By 2025, that number had declined to approximately 1,100. Fewer children entering the school-age population means fewer potential students for all schools serving the community.
At the same time, a smaller percentage of those children ultimately enroll in SDoL schools. Some families choose other educational options, while others relocate outside the district before their children reach school age.
Migration patterns also play a role. Cropper GIS analysis shows a net loss of school-age children between 2020 and 2025, a trend that is projected to continue in the years ahead.
Housing affordability is one factor contributing to that movement. Between 2017 and 2024, the median value of owner-occupied homes in the district nearly doubled, the second-largest increase in Lancaster County during that period.
Median rents also increased by roughly 50 percent over the same timeframe (fourth-largest), making it more difficult for some families to remain in the community.
Understanding these demographic trends is critical because enrollment affects nearly every aspect of school district operations, including staffing, budgeting, transportation, programming, and facilities planning.
The Board of School Directors is expected to receive a more detailed presentation on enrollment trends, projections, and their long-term implications later this month. As part of our commitment to transparency, we will continue sharing information and data that help our community understand the opportunities and challenges facing our schools.